PPP Loans, Federal Tax Revenue, State Population and Politics.

The Payroll Protection Program (PPP) is/was part of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) that allocated nearly $350B in loans to small businesses across the United States with the goal of keeping employees in the workforce and off of unemployment insurance.

The PPP loan program was made available to an assortment of small businesses including independent contractors, self-employed persons, sole proprietors, and businesses that meet the SBA’s size standards. Controversially, the PPP loan program also qualified food service businesses that have multiple locations, but fewer than 500 employees at any one location. A couple non-traditional small businesses took advantage of this loophole including Shake Shack (6,100 employees and $459.31 million in revenue in 2018) and Potbelly’s (6,000 employees and $409.707 million in revenue in FY19).

Right out of the gate, there seemed to be a number of issues with the PPP program. Small businesses needed to submit an application form to a lender and lenders were almost immediately overwhelmed. Some lenders chose to accept applications from businesses that they had an existing relationship with and ultimately, the program’s funds were exhausted in less than 2 weeks. Then came the stories of huge restaurant chains with hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue qualifying and receiving small business loans.

This isn’t a political post. I’m not making a political point or taking a political stance. I’m simply presenting factual data points and you can make whatever conclusion you choose to.

  • 2016 election results.

In 2016, Donald Trump took 30 states. These states were: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska,North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming.

Hillary Clinton took 20 states plus Washington D.C. These states were: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington

For fiscal year 2018, the federal government had ~$3.441T in total revenues from our 50 states plus Washington D.C. The 21 states and district that Clinton took was responsible for ~$1.778T or 52% of overall revenue. The 30 states that Trump took responsible for ~$1.662T or 48% of overall revenue.

California brought in the most federal revenue of any state with $456.5B or 13.27% of all revenues. 6 out of the top 10 revenue generating states went to Clinton (CA (1), NY (2), IL (5), NJ (7), MA (9), MN (10)). The 6 states bring in ~$1.255T or 36.5% of all revenues. 4 out of the top 10 revenue generating states went to Trump (TX (3), FL (4), OH (6), PA (8)). These 4 states bring in $762.9B or 22.2% of all revenues.

  • Population by State

According to the census dept., there are currently 328,300,544 residents living in the 50 states and Washington D.C. There are 141,506,425 residents living in the 21 states and district that Clinton took in 2016 and there are 186,794,119 in the 30 states that Trump took.

California has the largest population with 39,512,223 or 12.04 of the population of the United States. States that Clinton took average 8.2% larger populations with 6.74M residents compared to 6.23M residents in states that Trump took.

Federal tax revenue per resident in states that Clinton took is 41.2% higher than federal tax revenue per resident in states that Trump took. On average, each resident in states that Clinton took generate $12,565 in federal tax revenue. On average, each resident in states that Trump took generate $8900 in federal tax revenue.

PPP Program Applicant and Loan Values

As of April 16, 2020, there have been 1,657,705 approved PPP loans with PPP loan values totaling $341.4B for the 50 states and Washington D.C.

The 21 states and district that went to Clinton received 644,654 loans or 38.9% of all the loans created while making up 43.1% of the United States population. The 30 states that went to Trump received 1,013,051 loans or 61.1% of all the loans created while 56.9% of the United States population.

The 21 states and district that went to Clinton received $150.3B or 44.0% of all the value of all loans created while generating 51.7% of all federal tax revenues. The 30 states that went to Trump received $191.1B loans or 56.0% of all the loans created while generating 48.32% of all federal tax revenues.

10 of the 21 states and district, or 47.6%, taken by Clinton received a lower percentage of applications than their percentage to the overall U.S. population. 9 of the states, or 30.0%, taken by Trump received a lower percentage of applications than their percentage to the overall U.S. population.

13 of the 21 states and district, or 61.9%, taken by Clinton received a lower percentage of PPP loan value than their contribution to the overall federal tax revenue. 4 of the 30 states, or 13.3%, taken by Trump received a lower percentage of PPP loan value than their contribution to the overall federal tax revenue.

California, taken by Clinton, generates 13.3% of overall federal tax revenues and has 12.0% of the population of the United States only received 9.8% of the PPP loan values and 6.8% of the total loans approved.

On a per capita basis, the numbers are relatively balanced. Clinton states and district received $106.2M and 455.6 approved loans per 100,000 residents and Trumps states $102.3M and 542.3 approved loads per 100,000 residents.

Sources:

IRS – link: https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/18db05co.xls
SBA/Treasury Dept. – link: https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/SBA%20PPP%20Loan%20Report%20Deck.pdf